I write this on the eve of the 2025 English local elections and, more pertinently, with a year to go until we are on the eve of the Senedd elections. The narrative following this week's elections may feed into assessments as to what awaits us in 2026, so it seemed a good moment to make some observations before the news agenda is overtaken by the votes in parts of England.
Three parties are within the margin of error
Senedd elections tend to be underwhelming. We make our excitement out of Labour holding off the Tories in the Vale of Glamorgan, or Plaid making a breakthrough in Rhondda, or the Conservatives edging out the Lib Dems in "B'n'R". Nonetheless, the overarching narrative is Labour end up in power. Indeed, Labour is unbeaten in Wales in a domestic election for over 100 years.
There is a fair chance, the party will extend that run, but polling has shown very little between Labour, Plaid Cymru and Reform, arguably with the momentum on the side of their rivals.
Labour
At the 2024 UK election we saw a case study of what happens when a party has three leaders in a year and a large proportion of the existing members stand down at election time. It does not end well for that party.
For years we have heard Senedd Labour members talking up the value of a Labour government at either end of the M4 (Pont Abraham & Chiswick?!). Now it has occurred relations seem more strained than initially billed. Of course, being in government requires making unpopular decisions and a narrative has developed which suggests that Labour in power in Westminster will hit their chances in Wales due to controversial policies. This is undoubtedly true to an extent, but I would argue it is not the whole story.
Whether one agrees with the policy agenda of the Westminster government or not, what is noticeable is the pace with which it is seeking to deliver policy change. Big decisions on taxation, welfare, planning reform and regional devolution have happened rapidly. UK Labour is a party which knows it needs to make the most of its big majority today. Labour in Wales appear pedestrian in comparison. Understandably for a party in power for 26 years it is a big task to reinvent itself with the vigour with which their Westminster colleagues are working.
Plaid Cymru
One may agree or disagree with what they propose but the level of detail Plaid Cymru is already entering into with policy reports on important topics but not those which necessarily lend themselves to campaign literature is impressive. This is not a matter of throwing red meat to their core vote, it is preparing an agenda for government. It is healthy for our democracy when challenger parties take this approach. There is a fair chance that some form of agreement between Plaid and Labour will lead to the formation of the next Welsh Government. Obviously, the battle to lead is going to be fierce, but Plaid also appears to be preparing a comprehensive set of policies which they could take into any negotiation.
Talk of independence as an aspiration rather than a timetabled objective has helped broaden the party's appeal. The party must maintain a focus on credible governance over constitutional wrangling. The SNP would be a bad model to follow, they focused heavily on grievance but demonstrated little in terms of solutions. Plaid show signs of adopting a more measured approach.
Reform UK
It has become commonplace for critics of Reform UK to write them off as populist and offering incoherent policies depending on the audience or point in time. I think this underestimates the philosophical underpinning of Reform UK and a wider movement which includes some Conservatives. There has been a political realignment amongst the electorate which has created the environment for Reform UK to make inroads. This can be seen in the work of thinkers such as David Goodhart or, Tory MP, Danny Kruger. However, there are still tensions for the party to resolve such as a desire for small government and an interventionist state.
Reform UK is approaching elections differently to other parties, that in itself is interesting to seek to understand. A question remains as to the extent the party really wants to govern Wales. An argument could be made that it suits the party's UK election ambitions to be the biggest party and then be "shut out of power by a backroom deal between the establishment parties" in Wales. I would hope all parties contesting the Senedd election are doing so with the ambition to govern.
A further point of caution for Reform UK, and some Conservatives, would be the limitations of a fragmented media. In the past we have seen Twitter activity present a distorted view of the extent of support for a second referendum or for the election of Jeremy Corbyn. Today, X presents a radicalised vision of politics which is not reflective of the electorate at large. That there has been a realignment should not be mistaken for an electoral salience for every idea expressed by a party supporter.
Conservatives
From an electorate viewpoint the Welsh Conservative Party has always struggled to demonstrate agency separate to that of the UK party. The actions of the UK party leader are more likely to sway voters in Wales than that of the Senedd group. This makes it remarkably difficult for the Senedd Tories to influence their own voter-base. It is an unenviable position. That said, the Conservatives have adopted a slogan of 'Fix Wales' under which they hope to draw together their proposals for government. A year out, the most prominent pledges seek to reverse decisions already made about Senedd expansion, and speed limits. It is difficult to view these as credible costed pledges which could be delivered, and they feel more like a campaigning tactic to try and turn out a core vote. It is not unreasonable that voters should expect the official opposition to propose a comprehensive programme for government and hopefully we will hear more about the plans to 'fix Wales' over the coming twelve months.
Lib Dems
The party has underperformed in Wales compared to England and Scotland. The recent sweeping success across the south of England poses an interesting question for the future direction of the UK Lib Dems. Do they shift towards the centre-right reflecting many of their constituents in the home counties and west country or do they double-down on leaning leftwards to fill a gap by UK Labour's shift at least to the centre?
In Wales, they appear caught in the middle of that dilemma. A sole MS who leans left in a rural area where the Conservatives have traditionally been their primary opponent. Known for their attention to policy detail, it will nonetheless be difficult for the Lib Dems to be heard in the election.
